The decision flow
Three questions, in order. Each one filters or selects. By the end of the third you know whether to trade and which module fits today.
Daily routine
What's the regime?
Compare yesterday's close to the 20-DMA, 50-DMA, and 200-DMA.
Above all three → StrongUp.
Below all three → StrongDown.
Anything else → Mixed.
This is the master filter. Most other edges are conditional on it.
Was yesterday an NR7?
Was yesterday's range the smallest of the prior 7 sessions? If yes, today has a 96.6%
chance of breaking either the prior high or the prior low — range expansion is the base rate.
NR7 → skip premium-selling structures (Module 2). Add to Module 1 in regime.
What's the gap saying?
Compare today's open to yesterday's close.
Big gap (> ±0.5%) in line with regime → continuation, sell premium away from gap direction.
Big gap against regime → reduce or skip.
Flat or small gap in regime → iron condor / standard ORB.
Gap class is known at 9:30 ET — you don't have to wait.
Swing Long
Trend-regime continuation. Long-only. Daily chart. Hold days → weeks. The boring, money-making part.
When
Regime = StrongUp (close above 20, 50, and 200 DMAs).
Entry — any of
- Today's low touches the 20-DMA, close stays above it ("20MA" trigger)
- Friday close in StrongUp regime ("FRI" trigger)
- Add half-unit on any NR7 day inside regime ("NR7+" trigger)
Exit — either
- First close below the 20-DMA
- Any single +2% C2C day (mean-reversion signal, p=0.04)
Sizing
- Full size in StrongUp.
- Half size in Mixed.
- Zero in StrongDown.
Historical edge (2020-2026)
0DTE Credit Spread
Sell premium with strikes anchored to prior-day range (R = PDH − PDL), not arbitrary percentages of spot. Best on intraday SPX (5-min or 15-min chart).
Pre-trade gate
NR7 yesterday → skip the day. 96.6% expansion is fatal for premium sellers.
Setup matrix
- Gap-up >0.5% & StrongUp: sell PUT credit spread, short strike near PDL − 0.25R. Only ~10% of big-gap-up days touch PDL.
- Gap-down >0.5% & StrongDown: sell CALL credit spread, short strike near PDH + 0.25R.
- Flat / small gap in regime: IRON CONDOR — shorts at PDH+0.25R and PDL−0.25R.
- Gap against regime: reduce or skip; counter-trend gaps have weaker continuation.
Width — by % band
- ±0.5% wide → 18% expiry-pin rate (too tight)
- ±1.0% wide → 53% pin rate (workable)
- ±1.5% wide → 74% pin rate (recommended baseline)
Management
- Always defined risk.
- Take 50% of credit, walk.
- Skip Wednesday FOMC days.
Touch probabilities (2020-2026)
ORB Long (Opening Range Breakout)
Pure intraday momentum. 5-min chart. Long-only — the short side has no edge in this dataset. Hold to market on close.
Filters (all must pass)
- Regime = StrongUp (above 20, 50, 200 DMAs)
- Gap > −0.5% (no big gap-down — those continue lower)
- Bonus filter: open above prior-day high (raises win rate to 60%+)
Opening Range
First 15 minutes after open (09:30-09:45 ET). Mark OR HIGH and OR LOW. Don't take any trade during the OR.
Trigger
- Buy-stop placed at OR HIGH
- First touch only — no re-entries after stop
- No short entries (asymmetric — long-side has the edge)
Exit
- Stop: OR LOW (or break-even after first +0.5R move)
- Target: market on close (no overnight)
Skip if
- Below 20-DMA
- Big gap-down in any regime (continuation lower is base rate)
Historical edge (2020-2026)
What's behind these numbers?
If you want to see every test, every conditional bucket, and the underlying distributions, the dashboard has them all — searchable and sortable.